2026 Poland Market Otlook event slides ENG

Real Estate Market Outlook 2026

Polska

Katarzyna Gajewska Head of Research, CBRE Polska

Przemysław Łachmaniuk Head of Investment Properties, CBRE Polska

Real Estate Market Outlook 2026 Poland

01

Macroeconomics

Poland stands out

2026 – GDP growth, CPI inflation and unemployment rate (r-d-r, Baseline)

GDP growth forecast for 2026 across Europe (%)

Slovakia Romania Hungary Czech Republic Spain Poland

7

6

5

4

Italy Germany Austria France Ukraine Eurozone

3

2

1

0

GDP growth (%)

CPI inflation (%)

Unemployment rate (%)

0

1

2

3

4

% growth

Eurozone

Germany

Poland

Source: CBRE Forecasting, House View January 2026

Polish cities stand out, too Cities based on services are still outpacing those basing on production

TOP 3 developing cities in various geographies (2026 GDP growth)

Bengaluru Hyderabad Chennai Shenzhen San Jose Chengdu

Warsaw Krakow

Latin America USA & Canada Rest of Europe CEE China Asia & Pacific

Tianjin Seattle San Francisco Bogota Sofia Madrid Stockholm

Valencia Santiago Lima

Annual growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

Source: Oxford Economics 2025

02

Investment environment

2023 volume doubled, promising 2026 and increased liquidity

100 120 140 160 180 200

8

7

bnEUR

6

5

4

0 20 40 60 80

3

2

Number of transactions

1

0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026F

Office

Retail

Industrial

Other

forecast

number of transactions

Source: CBRE Research

Who is buying in Poland?

2024

2025

2026

7%

0%

2%

Poland

5%

Europe

18%

Africa

20%

CEE

9%

Africa

Poland

North America

9%

North America

9%

51%

France

Europe

Poland

Benelux

Middle East

Nordics

Middle East

19%

North America

52%

Germany?

other

other

Source: CBRE Research

Investor intentions survey - 2026

Purchasing intentions – are investors willing to buy more in 2026, than in 2025? POLAND

Preferred asset classes by region

60%

Core

17% 17%

50%

Core plus

22%

40%

26%

Value-add

41%

30%

37%

20%

Opportunistic

17%

16%

10%

Distressed/NPL

3%

4%

0%

Poland

CEE

Europe

No intention to buy

Less

Same

More

Source: CBRE Research

03

Office

End of pick&choose in Warsaw

Key market metrics for Warsaw

0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 800 000 900 000

10% 12% 14% 16%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

-4% -2%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F

New supply (sq m)

Demand (sq m)

Vacancy (%)

Annual rental growth in City Centre West (%)

Source: CBRE Research

Strong demand, no development

Supply, available space and constructed space in Poland

2 250

16%

Annual demand growth +7%

2 000

14%

1 750 thousands

12%

1 500

10%

Annual construction change -6%

1 250

8%

1 000

6%

750

4%

500

Annual vacancy change -1.2pp

2%

250

-

0%

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026F

space under construction

demand

vacancy

Source: CBRE Research

Investment angle

Prime yield 6.0%

1,76bn EUR

67%

Austria Belgium Czech Republic

Share of Polish capital in the office transaction volume

Office transaction volume

Germany Hungary Israel Italy Poland Sweden Switzerland UK

33%

38%

26,5m EUR

80%

Average ticket size

Spent in Warsaw

04

Retail

Strong growth fundamentals

Retail sales and purchasing capabilities grow

Purchasing power index growth

Retail sales forecast (%) for European countries

40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Hungary Bulgaria

Germany Eurozone France Slovakia Spain Czech Republic Poland

Romania Italy Austria UK

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Poland - purchasing power index per capita Poland - purchasing power index per household Warsaw - purchasing power index per capita European average index

-2

0

2

4

6

Source: CBRE Research, Nielsen iQ, 2025

Retail parks go on, and on, and on..

+130% in 5 years

700

600

500

400

300

[thousand sq m]

200

100

0

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

new shopping centres

new retail parks

new outlets

UC - shopping centres

UC - retail parks

Investment angle

6.50% 7.35%

Retail formats’ share (%) in the retail investment volume

859m EUR

100%

90%

80%

Prime yields

Wolumen inwestycji w handel

70%

55%

60%

50%

15,9m EUR

40%

57%

30%

20%

36%

Average ticket size

Share of retail parks and supermarkets in the investment volume

10%

0%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 shopping centres retail parks standalone supermarkets other

05

Industrial & logistics

Poland continues to grow big

6th largest European supply

2nd largest net take-up

120

1,3

6000

100

5000

Million sq m

80

4000

60

3000

40

2000

1,02

20

1000

0

0

Source: CBRE Research

Recovery is about to begin

Vacancy rates (%) across main European markets

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Spain

United Kingdom

Source: CBRE Research

Recovery is about to begin

Vacancy rates (%) across main European markets

9%

Q4 2025

8%

Poland Spain France

6,3% 7,4% 7,2%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

Q2 2025

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

France

Germany

Italy

Netherlands

Poland Spain

UK

Investment angle

USA Czech Republic France

Prime yield 6.25%

1,45bn EUR

8%

Office investment volume

Most active buyers

Africa Poland Europe Middle East North America

41%

37,1m EUR

8.1Y

38%

Average WAULT for +20m EUR deals

8%

Average ticket size

06

Living

The growth continues

Evolution of PRS supply in Poland

8 000

40 000

7 000

35 000

28511

6 000

30 000

5 000

25 000

4 000

20 000

3 000

15 000

2 000

10 000

1 000

5 000

0

0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

New supply (number of operational units)

Under construction/ planned

Total supply (number of units)

Source: CBRE Research

Keytrends

01 02 03 04 05

Second lowest ratio of rooms per person in the EU (1.2 vs. 1.7)

3rd place among most overcrowded flats (33.7 vs. 16.9 for EU)

Flat costs in the disposable income weigh less than the EU average

Very low vacancy (3.5%)

Liquidity is still a challenge, although changes are on the way; there is a need for supply growth and diversification

Majority transactions are forward purchases from previous years

Living sector investment volume in Poland

800

700

600

500

400

million

300

200

100

0

2016

2017

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026F

Source: CBRE Research

Investment angle

388,5 m EUR

5% vs. 23%

22%

Wolumen inwestycji w sektor

Living sector share in the investment volume PL vs. Europe

31%

4%

25,9m EUR

5.25%

prime yield (residential planning)

43%

Average ticket size

Belgium Israel

Poland Sweden

07

What is ahead of us?

Key directions

01 02 03 04 05

Promissing financial and macroeconomic conditions can improve liquidity and increase investment apetite.

Office still attract most capital – stable strong demand and upward rent pressure act in favour.

A strong year for I&L. Selective development activity and falling vacancies may lead to clear market diversification.

Still several years of increased development of retail parks ahead of us, but with it comes diversification, specialization and active repositioning of shopping centers.

High occupancy and a sign of greater liquidity may encourage developers to launch further PRS projects.