2026 Poland Real Estate Market Outlook_ENG

2026 Real Estate Market Outlook P|oland

Intelligent Investment

01 Economy

Positive outlook despite persistent uncertainty

Figure 01: CBRE Economic Forecast for 2026

This year, the Polish economy will accelerate slightly, with GDP growth forecast at 3.6%. Thus, Poland will maintain its position as a European leader in terms of the pace of economic development. GDP expansion will be based on solid fundamentals, driven by investment and consumption. Investments will increase significantly in 2026. In the public sector, the main source of investment will be EU funds from thePoland's Recovery and Resilience Plan ( Krajowy Plan Odbudowy i Zwiększania Odporności ), but investment in the enterprise sector is also expected to increase. Consumption will continue to support GDP growth, although its growth may be limited by decreasing wage growth and a growing propensity to save. The negative contribution of net exports to GDP will continue. However, the outlook for exports is better than in 2025, due, among other things, to the expected gradual economic recovery in Germany, which may result in an increase in demand for Polish products. Inflation should remain within the NBP's inflation target, reaching 2.7% per annum. Inflationary and wage pressures remain under control, which may support further monetary policy easing in 2025.

The unemployment rate remains low. Despite a slight increase in the second half of 2025, it should remain low at 3.1% in 2026 (calculated according to the methodology of the International Labour Organization ( ILO)). The anticipated economic growth will result in a high demand for workers. The yield on domestic 1-0year government bondsefll from around 6.0% to around 5.2% in 2025, reflecting a change in monetary policy direction. Further interest rate cuts may cause a continuation of the decline in yields, and the market assessment of geopolitical risk will also have an impact. The tariffs introduced by the US do not have a direct impact on the situation in Paonl d, but they do affect the general market mood and the economy of the region. In an optimistic scenario, we expect a decrease in effective tariff rates, an increase in business confidence and investments, which will support the development of the real estate market. If the U.S. reimposes more aggressive retaliatory tariffs, inflationary pressures are likely to return, creating a difficult environment for real estate investment.

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GDP growth (%)

CPI inflation (%)

10-year treasury bonds (%)

Unemployment rate (%)

Eurozone Germany Czech Republic Slovakia Baltic States Poland

Unemployment rates in the euro area and the Baltic States were not foreecdast Source: CBRE Macroeconomic House View, December 2025

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