2026 Poland Real Estate Market Outlook_ENG

2026 Real Estate Market Outlook P|oland

Intelligent Investment

02 Capital Markets

Pressure on rents drives returns Local players or the return of core capital?

Figure 02: Investment volume by sector in Poland (EUR million)

As the price expectations of buyers and sellers align and interest rates continue to stabilize, we anticipate improved market sentiment and a growing willingness to sell. We expect the availability of transaction opportunities to increase in 2026, and it is already clear that the pool of potential buyers is also expanding. However, the average transaction value remains relatively low, and the geographical distribution of capital suggests a slow return of investors acquiring prime assets. Nevertheless, for the second consecutive year, Poland has been a leading European destination for investor interest. This is largely driven by anticipated value increases due to upward pressure on rental rates, which in turn generates positive investment returns. Both individual assets and entire portfolios or platforms will continue to be traded. The improving leverage opportunities for real estate acquisitions will further bolster the investment climate.

With relatively low foreign capital activity, domestic investors, largely private individuals, are becoming increasingly prominent in the buyer structure. In 2025, domestic investors accounted for almost 20% of the €4.5 billion transaction volume. This is a historical precedent, especially noteworthy because it was achieved without established structures that would typically facilitate domestic entities investing in this asset class. We anticipate that with the return of core capital from Western Europe and the USA, domestic buyers will become less visible, as individual transactions by Polish capital typically range from €2 to €30 million. Nevertheless, this trend serves as a clear signal that local buyers, starting from a marginal share, recognize the potential in commercial real esta.te

9 000

180

8 000

160

7 000

140

6 000

120

5 000

100

4 000

80

3 000

60

No. of transactions

Investment volume(EUR million)

2 000

40

1 000

20

0

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Industrial and logistics Office Residential

Retail

Other Number of transactions (RHS)

Source: CBRE Research

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